20091008

Deciphering the Political Landscape of Ukraine

Today, I listened to a very knowledgeable presentation on Ukrainian politics between the Orange Revolution and today.
Because of the language barrier, I had barely begun to decipher the various names and affiliations of politicians and was very thankful for this overview. I have decided to do my homework online, that is, to retell what I was told (with the help of Wikipedia for the gaps) on this blog.

The most urgent of all questions, that we keep asking ourselves almost daily: how and when will the country come out of this deep political and economic crisis?

The calendar
A glance at the calendar of upcoming political events is part of any answer:
The election campaign for the next presidential elections will officially start on October 19th 2009. The city has been covered with posters, counter-posters and mobile stands for some weeks already. The first round of the elections is scheduled for January 17th 2010. The second round is scheduled for February 7th. The results should be official by the end of February (including appeals and court decisions) and then the new president comes into office within one month.
Bear in mind: orthodox christmas is on January 6th, orthodox epiphany is on January 19th (2 days after the first round of elections). Normally, between Jan. 1st and January 19th, there is not much (business-) activity going on. People are with their families, in their datchas, etc.
So, with a new president in office by the end of March 2010, the municipal elections will take place simultaneously (in March 2010), followed by elections for the regional parliaments in April 2010.

The presidential candidates
The 5 main candidates will most likely be (they can declare their candidacy officially only on October 19th 2009):

Victor Yushchenko (born in 1954) is President today and his party is called "Nascha Ukraina" (Our Ukraine). He was an ally of Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko during the Orange Revolution of 2004. He is an economist, worked as a banker, as chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine he co-created the national currency "grivna". He was also Prime Minister under the previous President Leonid Kouchma. He wants closer ties with the Eu and NATO and would like to put more distance between Ukraine and Russia. He is popular in the West of the country. Current rates of approval are only at 6%.

Yulia Tymoshenko (born in 1960) is Prime Minister today and her party is called "Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko" BYut). She was an ally of President Victor Yushchenko during the Orange Revolution of 2004. She is an economist and made her money in the oil and gas industry, especially in gas-barter-trade in the early 1990s. From this time, she is considered to be one of the rich oligarchs of the country. She wants closer ties with Russia than Yushchenko but is also all for a membership both in NATO and the EU. Her logo is a heart and she has already rallied support from popular Ukrainian show people. Her campaign stresses that the others talk while she works.

Victor Yanukovich (born in 1950) was hand-picked by former President Kouchma to succeed him at the end of his term in 2004, but the whistle was blown by the orange revolution on the blatant election fraud that took place. His party is called "Party of Regions" and he wants to give the Russian language the status of second official language of the country (currently it is Ukrainian only). He served some time in prison on criminal charges (robbery, assault) and is popular in the east and south of the country.

Arsenyi Yatseniouk (born in 1974) was minister of Foreign Affairs and Speaker of Parliament and his party is called "Front Smin" (Front of Change). He is an economist and lawyer. His ongoing poster-campaign (and tents!) has a military look, but apparently that's just my mis-perception. He uses his first name in the campaign. It is supposed to attract young voters. He campaigns on "change" and that he can save the country.

The fifth not-yet-candidate chosen by our presenter this morning is Sergii Tihipko (born in 1960). He campaigns on "change" and is a former minister of economics.

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